Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research
Stetson's survey of 830 Floridians, conducted online September 14–21, found Sen. Ashley Moody at 51% and Angie Nixon at 40%, with 3% for another candidate and 5% undecided; the release said the results include undecided voters who named a candidate they leaned toward. Stetson reported Moody's support unchanged from its spring survey at 51%, Nixon's up from 38% to 40%, and that 32% of Floridians had never heard of Nixon while 25% knew her and rejected her. Political scientist Kelly Smith wrote that the Republican leads "rest on genuine support, not just negative partisanship."
An InsiderAdvantage poll of 600 likely voters conducted September 20–21 had Moody at 49% to Nixon's 42%.
Sen. John Barrasso, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said at a Capitol news conference on September 23 that "the candidate in Florida, she's a card-carrying member of the Democrat Socialists of America" and described the election as a "clear choice between Republican, common-sense individuals, and these crazy, radical Democrats." Nixon responded on CBS News 24/7 the next day that "this is not about three letters" and "If it wasn't DSA, they would be attacking me on something." She said her campaign was about health care access, affordable housing, universal child care and "lowering the costs."
On September 22 Nixon resolved her May Capitol trespassing case without a guilty plea, with a $250 fine and 15 hours of community service, according to The 19th.
A St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely Florida voters conducted September 15–17 put Sen. Ashley Moody at 45.2 percent to Nixon's 44.8 percent, within the poll's 3.2-point margin of error — the second poll showing the special election effectively tied, after a Change Research survey conducted September 7–9 had the race at 47–47. The RealClearPolling average has Moody at 48.3 percent to Nixon's 43.3 percent.
No Democrat has won a statewide race in Florida since 2018; the special election is November 3, 2026.
Moody told Spectrum News she does not intend to debate Nixon this fall, saying "I am running against a self-proclaimed socialist who, when has been given a stage, likes to quote the Communist Manifesto and, very disturbingly, cop-killers." Nixon, campaigning in St. Petersburg, cited a leaked Leon County grand jury report finding the DeSantis administration "misappropriated" $10 million of taxpayer money in 2024, with Moody as attorney general aware of the plans. Nixon, who joined DSA in June, also cited an AP report that about 440,000 Floridians dropped ACA coverage this year, more than any other state.
Nixon's primary opponent Alex Vindman also declined to debate her; Nixon won the August 18 Democratic primary by double digits.